Over and Under-Performers

We're now nearly a quarter of the way through the season so I thought it'd be a good time to have a look at who is under and over-performing their underlying stats so far this season. In this context, a player is over-performing if they have more goals/assists at this stage of the season than we would expect them to have given their underlying stats (shots, touches in pen box etc.), an under-performing player is one who has fewer than expected. In short, those who are over-performing have probably been lucky and are unlikely to sustain their good form over the season. Being lucky doesn't mean they are not good players, just that they're conversion rates are probably unsustainably high.

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Biggest Over-Performers

• Sturridge - You probably didn't need me to tell you he won't score 35+ this season, though 23+ is a more than realistic target and he's still a great FPL option.
• Remy - Has slipped under the radar in scoring 5 goals and has probably been fortunate to have done so.
• Suarez - Isn't going to average 1.5 goals a game, but could be pretty close to averaging 1 a game.
• Oscar - Mourinho's poster boy has perhaps been lucky in 4 early goals which has secured his role as Chelsea's number 10, he ranks behind Hazard for expected goals in our model.
• Van Persie - This is an odd one as many will say he's not in good form. His presence here is due to his penalty taking responsibilities, though historically he is one player who has always converted chances at a very high rate.
• Yaya Toure - probably won't score incredible freekicks all season, but still offers some goal threat.
• Lukaku - Another who over-performed last season as well, he seems to get very high percentage chances so may continue to over-perform the model.
• Brady - Another penalty taker giving him 'free' goals.
• Giroud - Same category as Sturridge, good value but is closer to scoring once every 3 games.
• Aguero - See RVP and Lukaku, could outperform the model all season.
• Ramsey - Despite scoring 5 of his 13 total league goals this year, he is only slightly over-performing. Ramsey isn't just a bandwagon, he is a solid FPL player.
• Baines - On freekicks and penalties so will probably do better than the model predicts.
• Soldado - Penalties again given the Spaniard an over-performing tag despite not hitting top form yet.

Biggest Under-Performers

• Walcott - Can consider himself unlucky not to have scored earlier this season, expect goals when h returns from injury.
• Townsend - The shot happy midfielder has delivered goals in the Europa League and for England but has been lucky to have only scored 1 in the league so far.
• Walters - The model rates Walters quite highly, he may be due a goal sometime soon, though Stoke's attack doesn't demand much attention.
• Fer - Similar to Walters, may contribute a few goals this season but there's little reason to consider him in FPL.
• Cisse - Perrenial under-performer ever since his first few months at Newcastle, out of the team now and there's not much to suggest he'll find his way back in.
• Mirallas - A hot pick in preseason, Mirallas hasn't quite delivered on promises but he remains a solid FPL pickup.
• Michu - The infamous 'regression to the mean' has hit Michu this year, he outperformed the model by 10 goals last year, even so we can expect his goal tally to increase soon.
• Adam - See Walters and Fer.
• Lambert - A bit of extra luck and Lambert would enter into the Sturridge and Giroud debate for best striker at the start of the season, should be a reliable source of points for the rest of the year.
• Eriksen - Known more for his creative threat, Eriksen may be unlucky not to have scored yet.
• Paulinho - I'm unsold on Paulinho, his stats are good but inflated by a few great games. He offers security of starts in a good attacking team though.

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Biggest Over-Performers

• Ramsey - While he may continue with a good goal threat, I'm not sure Ramsey is going to offer significant assists this year and certainly doesn't justify the 4 he has so far.
• Giroud - Has 4 assists so far and won't keep it up, but is the 2nd highest rated forward for creativity so far (behind Rooney)
• Mirallas - He's not getting goals but does have 3 assists, expect those numbers to reverse over the season.
• Pablo Hernandez - His underlying stats are good and Swansea create high quality chances so do not fear too big a drop-off here.
• Negredo - May be lucky with 2 assists so far, but with players like Aguero playing off him he'll continue to get assists throughout the season assuming he plays.
• Zabaleta - A brilliant fantasy prospect last year, Zabaleta has offered very little going forward under Pellegrini so far despite 2 assists.
• Enrique - See Zabaleta.
• Ozil- Do not be worried about slight over-performance here, Ozil's class means the chances he creates are always likely to be converted at higher rates.
• Silva- See Ozil.

Biggest Under-Performers

• Snodgrass - another player tipped for a good FPL season, he's been unlucky not to have any assists yet, though Norwich are not a team warranting FPL investment at the moment.
• Townsend - If the model is correct then we could see an explosion from Townsend in an upcoming game.
• Walker - Currently sits with zero goals and assists despite getting forward a lot, I'd expect around 5 assists for the rest of the season.
• Oscar - Is the inverse of Mirallas here, expect a bit more creativity and a bit lower goal threat from Oscar for the rest of the season.
• Baines - Yet to record an assist but with set-pieces and Lukaku to aim for this should change soon.

Ending Notes

First, penalty takers are likely to over-perform on goals across the whole season, unfortunately I don't see a way of modelling how often teams will get pens (and if I could, they are too rare an event to predict), so this has to factored in post hoc.

Second, it's also important to note that many of the over/under-performers are only out by one goal/assist. A goal/assist this weekend would see most of the under-performers move in-line with their underlying stats, similarly a blank this week would bring most over-performers into line with the models predictions.