Player Rater Model - Spurs Options
First let's have a look at the PR Model for all of Tottenham's players. Below is a graphic of the PR Model just for Tottenham players. The size of the data point is minutes played and the colour is position (dark orange for forwards, orange for midfielders and light orange for defenders).
Note, some players have a negative expected goals value, this is clearly a problem in the PR model, but it is a problem of small data sizes, with only 7 games being played. I expect these issues will work through as more games are played. Those with a negative expected Goals have had excessive shots off target which the model doesn't like, but a single shot on target will move any of players into a positive expected goals.
We see that Townsend is one of the best options according to the model, offering significant assist and goal threat. Only Sigurdsson offers a slightly higher expected goals value, while Eriksen offers a far more creativity for only a little less goal threat. Townsend therefore looks a great option within this Spurs attack. In fact, if he were to start and finish all of Spurs games, we might expect 10 goals from him this year. That is a massive if though, and is the problem with picking up Townsend: rotation. So far his position has been secure, and looks likely to be over the next few weeks, but with a fully fit squad there is Lamela, Lennon, Chadli and Sigurdsson all vying for Townsend's place. Even if Townsend were to nail down his role in the team with good performances, we can expect him to be rotated a lot with Europa League games in mind.
Not only that, looking at the graph we see there are plenty of good options in the Spurs midfield, if Sigurdsson were nailed on he would probably be a better choice, Eriksen promises to contribute many assists although at a higher cost, and Paulinho has more modest but solid stats and a seemingly secure place (though he has Sandro, Dembele and Capoue to compete with). Soldado is still a good option as well, though he might be one to steer clear off in the short term until he finds some form.
A note, I see many other sites favouring Paulinho over Eriksen, and I wanted to offer a word of caution that Paulinho's stats are inflated by 2 standout games against Cardiff and Swansea. He had 5 SoT over those 2 games, but only 1 across the other 5!
Another quick note from this graphic is how little threat Vertonghen is offering, yet how high the reputation of him as an attacking defender is. He is more likely to pick up Bonus Points than Walker, but I'm not sure that alone justifies his higher price over Walker.
Player Rater Model - Midfielders
The below graphic shows the Player Rater model I introduced here, but with only midfielders show. Townsend is highlighted.
What's startling is the player that Townsend is nestled under: Michu. A hot pick among FPL players and last years FPL poster boy, Michu has almost identical Expected Goal and Assists values to Townsend, highlighting Townsend's incredible production so far this season. In fact, only Ozil, Walcott, Eriksen and Michu are expected to have got more points so far this season and offer a guaranteed place in midfield. With only a single assist so far this year, Townsend seems to have been very unlucky not to have acquired more points.
Conclusion
Considering Townsend alone though, his underlying stats are fantastic*, he is a direct and often selfish player and for fantasy football this is fantastic. A word of warning though, if he is to keep his place in his team he will probably have to reduce the number of shots he takes, reducing his appeal.The positives are his underlying stats, his good form for club and country, and a somewhat secure starting role for the short term at least. The negatives are the rotation that will come with a fully fit squad and the question of whether Townsend has the quality to convert his productivity into FPL points.
The verdict? He makes a great short term punt with huge upside, and if he nails his place down through good performances he'll be bargain of the season. Otherwise, long term, he is probably best avoided despite his stats, unless your happy to see the frequent 1 point bench appearances as he comes on for 10 minutes at the end. There are also better options in the Tottenham midfield, namely Eriksen or even Sigurdsson if he continues to start. Paulinho is a good alternative too and comes with less risk.
*I'd love to post his stats but I do not have the rights to. I strongly encourage you to head over to the excellent Fantasy Football Scout and sign up as a member, where you'll have access to Opta's data. It costs £15 for the year, but if your interested in football stats it's fully worth it. I am not affiliated with FFS in anyway and have not been asked to post this, I'm just a huge fan of their site.
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