FPL Position Review: Midfield

Michu out. Silva out. Hazard dropped. Big hitters misfiring. Budget options faltering. Choosing a midfield in FPL continues to be a thankless task. So following a short review of possible Michu replacements I decided to have a more in-depth look at which midfielders stand out according to the Player Rater model. Below are the two PR model graphics, filtered to show the most relevant midfield options.

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I chose Mesut Ozil as the header picture as he is somehow under the radar now, his away performances have been below par, but his FPL pedigree should not be in question. He is above all other fit midfielders for goal threat and creativity. Silva beats him for expected assists and Walcott for expected goals, but they are both out for this weekend at least. It's understandable that many don't want to double on Arsenal midfielders with Ramsey becoming almost essential, and an away fixture against Man Utd isn't the perfect week to bring him in. However Ozil is top draw and I'd expect him to be among the Top 5 midfielders come the end of the season.

Elsewhere in the Arsenal midfield and Ramsey is a serious option, he isn't a midguided bandwagon, he ranks 3rd for Expected Goals per Appearance and contributes enough creatively to make him a very solid option. If you haven't already got him then it's time to swallow your pride and do so. Cazorla is a good alternative, but hasn't shown himself to be worth the extra £2.4m over Ramsey.

The Chelsea midfield is as attractive and dangerous as ever to own. Mourinho has a wealth of options while fantasy players really have just two, Hazard or Oscar. The model suggests Hazard is a far better option, so I should be recommending him right? I would, had he not been dropped for the CL game following a missed training session, Mourinho has said he's back in the squad but his game time is in even more doubt than usual. I think the Chelsea midfield might be worth avoiding, but short term I'd go for Oscar if you were set on owning one. Schurrle and Willian make good punts if you think they might start, but there's not enough data on them yet for the model to give a good review.

Next up you might consider the Liverpool midfield for their favourable run of fixtures, the decision here is Gerrard or Coutinho. The model favours Gerrard slightly due to security of minutes, his set-pieces are also a positive. However the two are close and the choice between them should depend on your preferences as a fantasy player. If you want someone who is reliable and a good pick for the long-term then England's golden man is your pick, if you want a bit of a differential with the potential for big points then pick up the Brazilian boy wonder.

Moving onto another rotation nightmare in Tottenham's midfield, which I've already looked at here, and little has changed. Townsend remains a good option but may be rotated more in the future, Paulinho has some good stats and security of starts and minutes but isn't as hotly tipped by the model as by other fantasy sites, and other options are a huge rotation headache. My prediction is that in the coming weeks AVB will continue to experiment to find a way to score and that'll see the quality of Eriksen and Lamela secure starting spots and in turn become viable fantasy options. You heard it here first.

In Man City's midfield Silva is the obvious choice but since he is injured the selection yet again comes down to two players, Yaya Toure and Nasri. This mirrors the Gerrard/Coutinho situation almost exactly (with Nasri more likely to be dropped long term). With a full 90 minutes Nasri could prove a very good pick and short term is a nice transfer.

The Suarez/Aguero Plan

Moving away from the top end price bracket and if your looking to transfer out one of your injured or under-performing heavy hitting midfielders then you might be considering a downgrade to allow you some money to invest in the elite strike-force of Suarez and Aguero. Below are some options that'll save you some money.

First up, and there is a nice group of mid-priced options who have the reliability of minutes with the potential for big points scoring. Lallana, Cabaye, Sissoko, Mirallas, Snodgrass, Sessegnon, Amalfitano and Arnautovic make a small group of good fantasy options. I've little to say here other than that you can't go too far wrong with picking up one of these, price, fixtures and your teams rotation should guide your decision here.

The budget bracket is an interesting one as we have seen points scoring from the Barkley, Morrison, Ward-Prowse and Januzaj and each provide good attacking threat for their prices. There's always a question mark over their minutes, but for <£5.0m you can't ask for too much, if you want to free funds for Aguero or Suarez then these four are good options.

If you want to really look beyond the obvious then the model throws up some interesting differentials. Shelvey carries a fair goal threat, as does Redmond, while Downing gives your side some assist potential and Leroy Fer a little of both.

Long term there is one man I, and everyone else, is waiting for: Theo Walcott. Your Michu/Silva/Hazard replacement may well be a short term decision with Walcott's imminent return sure to turn fantasy heads, especially if he explodes onto the scene playing upfront while a jaded Giroud is given a much needed rest.

Blog Notes

Over the international break I'll hope to have a post reviewing how the model does for the 2012/13 season, and hopefully another on a model to explain clean sheets, though I'm having troubles sourcing data at the moment.