7 December 2013

A Look at Keeper Options in FPL



With just 2 clean sheets in today's games and Mignolet's owners who make up 39.2% of the game looking to move on the Belgian ahead of a nightmareish run of 4 fixtures I thought I'd have a look at goalkeeping options from now till the January wildcard. Below is the table I'll be using, the filters below it will help you decide who you want in your team. An explanation of the criteria is given below.




Criteria Explanations

1. Backup Keepers - First up I looked at which keeper might soon lose his place and to who. Pantillimon seems first choice at the moment, but were not sure if it'll last. Boruc will come straight in when fit, as will Foster. Westwood and Vorm have both been first choice, but Mannone and Tremmel have rotated with them at times this year.

2. Defender Options - I've picked out some defenders that come with some attacking potential that might be a better way to cover clean sheets for that team. Evra and Walker are perfect examples of players who carry significant attacking threat to make them worth the extra money, and thus making De Gea and Lloris less attractive as keeper options. (Note, there may also be defenders worth considering that have a potential for bonus points, such as Jagielka at Everton or Chico Flores at Swansea)

3. Next 6 Fixture Ratings - A rating from 5 (high) to 1 (low) that rates the next 6 fixtures for each team for ease. I used the excellent Fantasy Football Scout Season Ticker to judge this, if you're not already a member I highly recommend it!

4. Defensive Stats Rating (Form) - A rating from 5 (high) to 1 (low) that rates the team for strength of their defense over the last 6 games only (excluding today's games). This is judged on underlying defensive stats only, and not actual goals conceded or clean sheet records. It looks at shots and shot position, quality of shot, chances created and the location of those chances, and crosses. Each team is then rated in each category according to every other team. For example, Man City have conceded just 63 shots inside the box all season, the lowest of any team so are assigned the highest rating for shots inside the box. Each category rating is then summed up to give a rating for each team. I then grouped ratings into 5 groups to make it easier to digest.

4. Defensive Stats Rating (Season) - Same as above but for all games over the season instead.

5. Total - The sum of the 3 ratings.

Process of Elimination

You can use the viz in anyway you want, but I think the best way in mind to establish a shortlist is to work by elimination. Here's my thought process, yours may differ.

First Round: Eliminate all teams with a poor defensive record for the season.
  • Exclude Marshall, Stekelenberg, Ruddy, Westwood, Guzan, Speroni, McGregor, Begovic.
Second Round: Eliminate all teams with a poor defensive record over the last 6 games.
  • Exclude Krul, Myhill
Third Round: Elimiante all teams with poor upcoming fixtures.
  • Exclude Szczesny, Pantillimon, Mignolet, Vorm, Gazzaniga
The Shortlist:
  • Cech, Howard, De Gea, Lloris, Jaaskelainen.

From there your decision comes down to your time preferences (Jaaskelainen's best fixtures only come after a Man Utd and Arsenal back-to-back), other defenders you already own (if you have Terry you might pass on Cech) and of course the budget you have available.

If you disagree with any of these criteria then let me know! I'm open to change the ratings if you can convince me.

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