GW16 Player Rater Update

As always, the updated graphics can be found here.

The gameweek started and finished with 2 incredible games, Man City's 6-3 thriller against Arsenal and Tottenham's woeful 5-0 loss against Liverpool. Convincing wins by Man United and Everton and an unconvincing one by Chelsea at home to Palace gave some interest in an otherwise quite dull gameweek that saw 4 draws, and a close home win from Cardiff.

Suarez pulled in yet another massive points haul, he is quite simply one of the best players in the world right now. His expected goals per appearance figure is actually above 1 now, that sort of form puts him in the same elite group as Messi and Ronaldo. I really can't overstate just how incredible Suarez is playing at the moment and his run of form is backed up by some remarkable shooting statistics. Liverpool eventually kept a clean sheet, the week after I wrote an article on good Mignolet replacements! Tottenham didn't even manage a shot on target which, in a home game especially, is the sort of performance that sees managers get sacked.

At the Etihad and Fernandinho was the man on show, scoring his first 2 goals in a City jersey. Aguero, Negredo, Toure and Silva all added a goal each as the spoils were shared around the team. Man City are simply unstoppable at home with a "we can score 3 more than you" attitude. The much awaited return to the starting lineup of Theo Walcott saw him score 2 goals as fantasy managers across the land scramble try to figure out how to get the prolific midfielder into their team. David Silva is another who will tempt fantasy managers with his return from injury.

Everton continued a great run of form with a convincing victory over Fulham, the result probably doing an injustice to the improved West London side. Berbatov cooly slotted away another penalty and his fantasy stock is rising. The Player Rater's favourite defender Seamus Coleman scored his 3rd of the season, while Lukaku picked up yet another lucky assist, this time off his arm.

To quickly roundup the rest of the fantasy action, Danny Welbeck somehow managed 7 shots, scoring with 2 of them, as the lead striker for Man United. Peter Whittingham scored a long overdo 2nd goal and joins a list of growing ~£5m midfielders who deliver big points hauls after weeks of no attacking returns. Gary Hooper scored a spectacular goal to gain Norwich a point, but his conversion rate seems a little too high and he isn't taking enough shots for me to consider him yet. West Ham vs Sunderland and Hull vs Stoke were 0-0 stalemates and defenders from any of these teams are good and cheap options to play in home games, with the possible exception of Sunderland who didn't concede by virtue of West Ham's awful attacking play. Newcastle and Southampton shared a point, but there was little fantasy interest beside Jay Rodriguez who is having enough shots to consider as a cheap forward. Finally, Chelsea beat Palace 2-1. They were as unconvincing as ever, but are still 2nd in the table, if they finally get going they'll be a team to fear. Chamakh scored his 3rd in 3 games, but file that one under Gary Hooper.

Aguero Replacements

The biggest decision facing many fantasy managers this week is the Aguero dilemma after he picked up a calf injury in the 50th minute. The prognosis is unknown, with the Argentine awaiting a scan on Monday, but he could be out for a couple of weeks, which could be 4-5 games. With Jovetic returning from injury and Dzeko and Negredo putting in good performances this year, Pellegrini could well be cautious with Aguero who has been used heavily in all competitions to this point. Given all of that, I decided to look at possible replacements using the player rater model.

First, Suarez is a no-brainer if you don't already own him, nothing more to say here. In the next rung down then Rooney and Lukaku standout as excellent replacements, Lukaku comes in at 4m cheaper though and I'm not sure he's much of a downgrade over Rooney so he gets my tip of the 2.

With the wildcard not far away, many might be considering a differential option. Based on the last 4 matches, Berbatov seems the standout option here. Fulham's attacking play is much improved under Meulensteen and Berbatov is the pinnacle of those attacks. Throw in penalties like the 2 he's just scored and you could do worse over the winter period.

Negredo presents an interesting and obvious replacement too. He's getting a fair amount of shots, and scoring well, but his shot accuracy is poor. He's scored 2 from 3 shots on target (Last 4GWs), but his shot accuracy of 33% is a bit lower than we might expect. To continue scoring well he'll need to either improve his accuracy or take more shots. With Aguero out the latter might well happen.

Beyond this group there is very little choice. Benteke, Giroud, Soldado and Remy have played well at times this season but are out of form at the moment, each have the class to score well but there's nothing in the stats to suggest any are due a goal haul soon. Crouch is shooting surprisingly well, but whether you really want a Stoke striker in your team is a question that is hard to answer.

There is one other option I'd consider and that is Jay Rodriguez who has 13 shots, 7 on target and 3 goals in the last 4. At his price that is tremendous value and it frees up funds to invest in midfield options like Walcott, Ozil, Silva, Toure or Hazard. Deulofeu would have been in the same category but he now faces a spell on the sidelines with a hamstring injury.